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明瑾岑:索罗斯的十二大投资真理

2019-04-22  

本文为【明瑾岑:索罗斯的十二大投资真理】

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本文的拼音版如下:

suoluosideshierdatouzizhenli

 

touzishiyimenxuewen,看kankanzishentouzijiasuoluosideshierdatouzizhenli

 

1)“赚zhuanqian,要yaoyikaozhengchangjiazhideshangpinchuxianzhekouyijiyazhuyiwaishijian。”如ruqitaweidadetouzizheyiyang,索suoluosifeichangguanzhu“预yuqineijiazhi”。预yuqineijiazhixiangdangyuqianzaitouzijieguodepingjunquanzhongjiazhi。一yigeyudaduoshurenbutongdetouzilinianzhiyouzaiyuqineijiazhijijideshihoucaishimingzhide。一yifangmian,索suoluosinenggoubiqitatouzizhezuochugengjudadeyazhu。另lingyifangmian,在zaitouziguochengdechulishang,索suoluosiyuqitatouzizhebingwugenbenshangdequbie

 

2)“市shichangtongchangshibukeyucede,所suoyiyigetouzizhexuyaoyougezhongbutongdeyuxianqingjingjiashe。”市shichang“时shier”可keyiyuce,但danzhebingbuyiweizhuoshichang“总zongshi”不bukeyuce。如ruguoyigetouzizhehenyounaixin,能nenggoudengdaiyigechenggongyazhudingjiapianchadejihui,那nametajiunenggoujibaishichang

 

3)“最zuinanpanduandeshiqingshi:风fengxiandadaoshimeshuipingshianquande。”风fengxianshinizaoshousunshidekenengxing。有yousanzhongqingkuangbixuyaomiandui:a. 有youshinizhidaofengxianshijiandezirantexinghekenengxing(比birushuorengyingbi);b. 有youshihounizhizhidaozhegeshijiandetexing,但danbuzhidaoqikenengxing(比biruyizhizhidinggupiao20年nianneidejiage);c. 有youshihounishenzhilianweilaikenengshanghaidaozijideshijiantexingdubuqingchu(比biruexingheitianeshijian)。索suoluosizengbiaoshi,这zhexiejuedingshizaiyidingdehuanjingxiazuochude,这zhezhonghuanjingkenengshi:你niyouxuduofankuihuilu,其qizhongyouxieshijijide,有youxieshixiaojide,这zhexiefankuihuxiangzhijianzuoyong,产chanshengchudaduoshushiqineishengxingyishidefeichangguijiagemoshi;但danshizaigebieqingkuangzhong,一yixiepaomodefazhanshifangliaoqiquanbudeqianneng,以yizhiyuyangailiaoqitayingxiangyinsudezuoyong。想xiangyao“安anquan”,最zuihaodefangfajiushiyaoyouyige“安anquanbianji”。

 

4)“你nizhengquehuocuowubingbushizuizhongyaode,最zuizhongyaodeshinizhengquedeshihounengzhuanduoshaoqian、错cuowudeshihouhuikuiduoshaoqian。”对duiyuyigetouzizhezuizhongyaodeshishi“正zhengquexingdeliangji”,而erbushi“正zhengquedepinlv”有youduogao

 

5)“拥yongyouzixinhuozhechicangjiaoxiaodushiwujiyushide。”如ruguozaiyigeduzhuzhongniyingdejilvzugouda,那namejiudajuyazhu。当dangsuoluosijuedetazijishizhengquedeshihou,几jihumeinagetouzizhenenggoubitaxiagengdadezhu

 

6)“我wozhizaiyouliyoushangbandeshihouqushangban,而erqieshangbandenatianwoshizhenzhengdizaizuoshiqing。”一yizhibaochimangludejiaoyizhuangtaijiuhuichanshenghenduodefeiyonghecuowu。有youshihoubienamehuoyuewangwanghuishiyigetouzizhenengzuodezuihaodeshiqing

 

7)“如ruguotouzishizhongyulexiaoqian,如ruguonicongzhongdedaoliaolequ,那nanikenengmeiyouzhuandaoshimeqian。真zhenzhenghaodetouzidushiwuliaode。”如ruguoniyinweitouzierfeichangxingfen,那namenikenengshizaidu博bo,而erfeitouzi。最zuihaobiebazijidangduke,而erbubazijidangdukedezuihaofangshijiushi:只zhizaijilvyouliyunideshihouyazhu

 

8)“如ruguoyaofanyingchuweilaidejiage,那namemuqiandeshichangjiagezongshicuowude。”索suoluosixianranbushiyigexiaolvshichangjiashuo(efficient market hypothesis)的dexintu。这zhebingbuqiguai,因yinweiruguoshichangzongshiyouxiaolv,他tajiubuhuichengweifuhao

 

9)“市shichangnenggouyingxiangqisuoqidaideshijian。”这zhejuhuaqishijiushizhishichangde“自zifanxing”理lilun。在zaisuoluosikanlai,市shichangherenmenduishichangdekanfashixianghuzuoyongde。索suoluosishuo,“在zairenzhihexianshizhijiancunzaiyigeshuangxiangdezifanlianxi,这zheshiyizhongqichuhuicujinziwoqianghua、但danzuizhonghuidaozhiziwojikuideguocheng,或huozhekeyishuozhejiushipaomo。每meigepaomodushiyouyizhongqushiheyigecuowudegainianyizifandefangshixianghuzuoyongerxingchengde。”

 

10)“实shijishenghuozhong,很henshaonenggoucunzaizhenzhengdejunheng——市shichangjiagezongshixiguanyubodong。”均junhengshizhongduohongguanjingjixuejiazuochujiashedejichu,然ranersuoluosirenweijunhengqishishiyizhonghuanjing。均junhengkeyirangshuxuejisuanfeichangwanmei,但danquewangwangbufuheshishi。索suoluosizengshuo:“经jingjisikaoxuyaokaishikaolvxianshishijiedezhengcewenti,而erbushijiandandizhizaogengduodeshuxuefangchengshi。”索suoluositouziguandiandexingchengbingbushiyilixingweizhutide。比birushuo:“当dangchangqiqushishiqudongnengdeshihou,短duanqibodongxingwangwanghuishangsheng,原yuanyinhenjiandan——那naxiegensuiqushidetouzirenquncishizhaobudaofangxiangliao。”索suoluosihuanxiangxin,“繁fanrong-崩bengkuideguochengzaixingtaishangshibuduichengde:一yigechangqi、逐zhujianxingchengdefanrongzhihouwangwangshijicu、短duanzandebengkui。”

 

11)“经jingjishijiushiyongwuzhijindeshangyanjiahuahehuangyan,而erbushizhenli。”能nenggouyongyuyanjieshiguoqusuofashengdeshijian,并bingbuyiweizhuozhezhongjieshishizhengquedehuozhemouzhonglilundejichunenggouyongyuyuceweilai。人renleiyouyizhong“事shihoucongming”的dequedian。索suoluosishuo,“必bixuyaocongtoudaoweidizhongxinsikaojingjililun,因yinweinaxiexiaolvshichangjiashuo、理lixingxuanzelilunsuozhichidedianfan,最zuihoushijishangdupochanliao,与yuleimanxiongdizhihouquanqiujinrongxitongdepochanleisi。”

 

12)“我wofuyouzhishiyinweiwozhidaowoshimeshihoucuoliao。我wojibenshangdushiyinweiyishidaozijidecuowuer‘幸xingcun’下xialaide……我womenyinggaiyishidaorenleijiushizheyang:错cuoliaobingbudiulian,不bunenggaizhengzijidecuowucaidiulian。”


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